Event Speakers

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Alexander Ineichen, founder of IR&M, has spent the last couple of years focussing his research on how investors can use ‘nowcasting’ (as opposed to forecasting) in relation to risk management. The risk management research was designed to improve investment decision-making using fact-based criteria, rather than opinions and forecasts. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns. Nowcasting is the economic discipline of determining a trend or a trend reversal objectively in real time. Nowcasting is fact-based, focuses on the known and knowable, and therefore avoids forecasting. In his presentation Alexander will claim that nowcasting is the basis of a robust decision-making process. The presentation will further elaborate on how various forms of momentum can help with risk management. Alexander will show three types of momentum (macro, earnings, and price momentum) and demonstrate how these measures can provide signals that can initiate a thought process; thus help provide preserving wealth or heighten an investor’s conviction in a given trend.